EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2021-2025
SolarPower Europe's annual EU Market Outlookhelps policy stakeholders indeliveringsolar PV's immense potential to meet the EU's 2030 renewable energytargets. Produced with the support of our members and national solar association, the Outlook demonstrates how solar energy can, and will,be the engine that drivesthe European Green Deal.
The EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2021-2025 contains an updated forecast for the EU solar market in 2021 and projections of the evolution of the market through 2025.
The report includes:
A progress review of the achievement of the solar targets in all NECPs
A deep dive analysis of the EU markets expected to install more than 1 GW in 2021
A mapping of solar manufacturing capacity across the European Union for different solar products along the value chain
Key Takeways
1. Stellar solar performance in 2021
Solar power in the Europe Union has again demonstrated a stellar performance in 2021 despite adverse market conditions on various fronts – from the continued negative effects of COVID-19 on our daily lives, to PV product supply shortages and consequent solar module price hikes.
As forecasted, demand for solar power in the European Union has grown significantly in 2021. The 27 member states of the European Union saw around 25.9 GW of new solar PV capacity connected to their grids in 2021, an increase of 34% over the 19.3 GW installed the year before.
2. Largest EU solar markets
Germany is again Europe's major solar market in 2021 with 5.3 GW of newly installed capacity, followed by Spain (3.8 GW), the Netherlands (3.3 GW), Poland (3.2 GW) and France (2.5 GW). In 2021, the Top 5 markets in the European Union have stayed the same, and among the Top 10, there are only 2 newcomers that are from northern Europe (Denmark and Sweden), replacing two established PV markets, one in central Europe (Belgium), the other in the south (Portugal).
In 2021, 25 of 27 EU member states deployed more solar than the year before
3. Bright solar future - more ambition needed
The EU Market Outlook's PV market scenarios 2022 to 2025 show continuous, two-digit annual growth rates that are all slightly higher than in our previous edition. The Medium Scenario now forecasts 18-20% growth rates compared to 16-17% levels last year, adding around 162.7 GW, and reaching 327.6 GW by the end of 2025. According to our modelling of the Medium Scenario up to 2030, the total solar fleet in the EU will continue its strong growth to 672 GW in that year, with the annual installation rate reaching over 85 GW.
However, SolarPower Europe asks the European Commission and Member States for much more ambition for the solar sector. By 2030, the EU needs to operate 870 GW of solar capacity across its territory to enable the most cost-efficient trajectory towards climate neutrality in 2050 and meet the 1.5°C Paris target. The crucial foundation for this path is a EU renewables target of at least 45% for 2030.
